K Mans Korner

Welcome to my inaugural K Mans Korner golf tips. I've been asked to pen my thoughts on weekly PGA tour events and make a few tips as well. I will be making 6-8 different selections every week, 2 from each "category" as there are what I consider 3-4 different levels of odds when it comes to golf. Favourites, mid-tier players, outsiders, and absolute donkeys. Make no mistake, the value offered in the outer two brackets are where the fun is. The odds can be outstanding and todays systems of being offered to "Take Win" makes them viable money making opportunities even if they can't (and they generally don't) close the victory.

So let's get down to business.
This week the PGA Tour hosts its flagship event The Players Championship at The Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Verde, Florida. The event traditionally has the strongest field of the year as unlike the Majors, there are no random amateurs, qualifiers or strange club pros who are going shoot 90. The PGA tour run this event and they only invite players based on World Rankings. Being the biggest and best field we often see awesome value in the betting and this week is no different.

The biggest star of the week is usually the golf course. With the par 3 17th hole being perhaps the most dramatic hole all year on the PGA tour. Last year Ricky Fowler birdied it three times in the one day on his way to victory (once in regulation and twice in the play-off). With the traditional back right hole location just hanging out there in the water, that was seriously impressive. 

So what are we looking for in a runner at The Players? Well the number one attribute is accuracy off the tee. Unlike most PGA tour events, the Stadium course does not suit the long hitters (Bubba has openly said he HATES the course). The par 5's are all very technical holes that kink and dogleg. They are generally reachable by all so the long hitters advantage of hitting mid irons into par 5s is taken away and they have to play from the same spots as the short hitters. Guys like Fred Funk, KJ Choi, Matt Kuchar, Tim Clark, Steven Ames, Justin Leonard are all past champions and would in their prime all occupied the bottom 20 in driving distance and topped the accuracy stats off the tee. 

Also, unlike many courses on the tour missing tee shots is severely punished with water and sand which is one of the reasons Bubba hates it.

Expect the usual suspects to get all the money from the punters Spieth, McIlroy, Day, but that will of course leave us plenty of value elsewhere.

Favourites
Henrik Stenson or "The Robot" as I like to call him is the only player in the top 20 in the world inside the top 40 in driving accuracy on the tour 9 (can you believe that!!). He is a past champion in 2009 and T5 in 2013. Although he missed the cut last week, I would say this was due to the course not suiting rather than poor play. The TPC course suits him down to the ground as he is at his best when he can hit 3 wood off the tee and then let his irons do the talking. This course is perfect for that. Expect him to contend. 34-1

Justin Rose despite not showing up that well this year's driving accuracy stats is normally a very straight driver and with a top ten last week I think he is coming into form. His putting is being questioned having recently switched to The Claw, but if he says that the "numbers" tell him it's the best way to putt then it's only a matter of time until it kicks in. 26-1

Mid range players
Zach Johnson or Zee Jay should present value this week as his form hasn't been amazing but he is a very consistent player and will generally show up when a course suits his short straight driving and perfect wedge game (St Andrews last year). He is 50th in driving accuracy which is a little off for him (he has changed equipment this year) but I expect him to drive it straight. 51-1

Russel Knox is an under the radar player who won a big WGC event last year. He is an extremely consistent play ranked 4th in the Fed ex cup standings and ranked 31st in the world. He is also ranked 16th in driving accuracy and 3rd in greens in regulation. You will get a good price on him as he is highly under-rated. 81-1

Outsiders
Matthew Fitzpatrick is ranked 9th in driving accuracy. Young man newly joined the PGA tour is a former US Amateur champion and last year when he turned pro he had finished top 5 in the first few events. The courses on the PGA tour haven't suited him so far but this one will reward his straight driving. 151-1

Ryan Moore, I can't believe he's in the outsider category of odds, but we'll take it! He is a big time player who is top 30 in driving accuracy. He has good course form at this event and is ranked 47th in the world PLUNGE. 151-1

Donkeys
Now these players are at seriously long odds so let's have some fun

Jason Bohn is a wily veteran on the PGA tour which is an advantage on this course. He is ranked 83rd in the world and is currently 38th in the Fedex cup so he has form this year and more importantly he is top 10 in driving accuracy. Smash him 300-1

Jerry Kelly, like Bohn is a wily veteran with a great track record at this tournament. Number 4 in driving accuracy. 300-1